FORECAST DISCUSSION

FORECAST DISCUSSION
VALID:  162048Z
ISSUED: 162000Z - 170000Z

SYNOPSIS...
VW SAT SHOWED SEVERAL WK VORT LOBS MOVING AROUND HIGH PRESS CENTER IN THE UPPER LVLS OVER NM.  TWO WK LOBS ARE NOT BEING FORCED NNE OVR CA WHICH MAY HAVE A EFFECT ON STORMS TODAY.  ANOTHER IS BEING SHEARED APART OVER WESTERN TX.

BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL BEING EXPRESSED BY NWS OF THE TSTORM OUTBREAK ACROSS AZ, I WILL FOCUS THIS DISCUSSION ON THAT POSSIBILITY.

INHIBITING FACTORS TO OUTBREAK...
UPR LEVEL SUPPORT IS THERE IN THE 300 / 250 MB WE HAVE A MOD SE FLOW OF 20 TO 25KTS WINDS AROUND HIGH PRESS LOCATED OVER NM.  THIS WILL HELP WITH VENTING STORMS, BUT MAY CAUSE LARGE ANVIL SHIELDS WHICH MAY REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DOWN WIND IN THE DESERT LOCATIONS.

FLOW IN MID LEVELS IS STILL VERY WEAK AND THUS I BELIEVE STORMS WILL NOT MOVE MUCH.  THUS, THEY WILL BECOME MORE PULSE LIKE IN NATURE, BUT AS THEY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE DESERT THEY WILL QUICKLY DIE OUT.

ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOW MOVING NNE INTO CA.  THESE TEND TO BRING UP DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC.  SO THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE A REDUCTION IN OUR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

FORECAST TODAY...
I BELIEVE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GET STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE IN NATURE - MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.  BUT I BELIEVE MOST OF THE STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAIN REGIONS.  OUTFLOWS MAY SPARK A FEW SHORT LIVED STORMS ON THE EASTERN HIGH DESERTS, BUT AGAIN I BELIEVE THEY WILL BE SHORT LIVED.

I DO BELIEVE WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DUST STORMS ON THE DESERTS WITH STRONG POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL KEEP THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MOISTURE FOR NOW.  THERE MAY BE SOME ATTEMPT IN THE LONG RANGE TO DRY THINGS OUT, BUT THE MODELS ARE FLIP FLOPPING ON THAT POTENTIAL.

RS...